Egypt is bombing Jihadists in Libya. Saudi Arabia is bombing Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Yemen has always been Saudi Arabia’s backyard so this development is inevitable. Not much needs to be said about Syria and Iraq’s meltdown.
But really most middle eastern countries not named Israel are a step away from turning into Lebanon. The region is boiling down into one big civil war. The handful of big players clumsily trying to benefit/control the situation, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, are themselves unstable and suffer from religious and ethnic imbalances that can explode at any time.
That’s one reason why they keep intervening in other countries. That’s the Iraqi lesson.
Much of this is due to the Arab Spring. And the larger outgrowth of Obama’s policies. The US served as a source of stability in the region. The region wasn’t that stable, but the wheels stayed on. Now the wheels are coming off. And the worst case scenarios are troubling.
Egypt has failed to stabilize Libya despite having one of the best militaries in the region. Iran, Turkey and Qatar are running around lighting fires. Now the Saudis are leveraging their military capabilities, high in equipment but low in personnel, to try and put one of them out. I doubt they’ll do much better than their Egyptian allies have.
The ultimate beneficiaries of all this chaos are the various Jihadist groups, Al Qaeda, ISIS, the Houthis and anyone else involved.
We could very well be seeing the beginning of a real Arab Spring that will fundamentally transform the region, either into a tribal war zone or a new Caliphate.
Meanwhile Obama is waging a political war against Israel, the most stable country in the region.